Main Candidates Profile
1. Nasry "Tito" Asfura (National Party) - LEADING
- Current Position: 40.63% (530,073 votes)
- Age: 67
- Background: Former Mayor of Tegucigalpa (2014-2022), Construction businessman
- Key Policies:
- Free market economics and privatization
- Infrastructure development and foreign investment
- Strong military and police presence
- Pro-US alignment (Trump endorsed)
- Strengths: Trump endorsement, business credentials, infrastructure track record
- Weaknesses: Party tainted by ex-President Hernández's drug conviction, corruption allegations
2. Salvador Nasralla (Liberal Party) - SECOND PLACE
- Current Position: 38.78% (506,316 votes)
- Age: 72
- Background: TV sports broadcaster, former Vice President (2022-2024)
- Key Policies:
- Anti-corruption crusader
- Pro-Taiwan, restore diplomatic ties
- Bukele-style hard-line security approach
- Labor reforms and open economy
- Stronger US trade relations
- Strengths: Anti-corruption message, political outsider image, experienced campaigner (4th run)
- Weaknesses: Party switching history, age, previous election fraud claims
3. Rixi Moncada (LIBRE) - THIRD PLACE
- Current Position: 19.59% (255,972 votes)
- Age: 60
- Background: Lawyer, former Finance Minister (2022-2024), Defense Minister (2024-2025)
- Key Policies:
- "Democratize the economy" - state intervention
- Protect natural resources from privatization
- Maintain China diplomatic recognition
- Anti-corruption (selective enforcement)
- Continue Castro's progressive agenda
- Strengths: Government machinery, Castro's 64% approval rating
- Weaknesses: Dramatic collapse from LIBRE's 2021 landslide, Castro administration corruption scandals, pre-announced she won't accept results
Business Implications by Scenario
If Asfura Wins (National Party):
Positive:
- Stronger US relations and potential aid increase
- Pro-business, free market policies
- Infrastructure investment opportunities
- Regulatory relaxation, privatization opportunities
Negative:
- Potential social unrest from LIBRE supporters
- Corruption concerns (party legacy)
- Environmental regulations may be weakened
- Labor tensions possible
If Nasralla Wins (Liberal Party):
Positive:
- Anti-corruption drive could improve business climate
- Taiwan diplomatic ties = Asian trade opportunities
- Strong US relations maintained
- Labor reforms may attract investment
Negative:
- Bukele-style security crackdown may disrupt business
- Political instability if Trump withdraws support
- Uncertainty around economic policy details
If Moncada Wins (LIBRE):
Positive:
- Policy continuity from Castro administration
- China trade relations continue
- Social stability (no regime change)
Negative:
- Economic interventionism, anti-privatization stance
- Potential US aid cutoff
- Business community concern
- Trump administration hostility
- Venezuela alignment concerns
PREDICTION: Most Likely Winner
Nasry Asfura (National Party) - 55% Confidence
Reasoning:
-
Current Lead: Holds 40.63% vs 38.78% for Nasralla with 34% counted - a margin of 23,757 votes
-
Trump Factor: Direct US presidential endorsement carries weight with:
- Business community seeking stability
- Middle-class voters wanting US aid continuation
- Conservative voters
-
Historical Pattern: National Party has strong rural organization, and remaining 66% of votes likely include rural areas
-
Opposition Split: Nasralla and Moncada split the anti-National vote (58.37% combined)
-
Business Momentum: Private sector backing provides resources for final push
Key Uncertainties:
- Vote Distribution: Only 34% counted - urban vs rural breakdown unknown
- Fraud Allegations: All three candidates have pre-emptively claimed fraud
- Electoral Council Integrity: Institutional weakness creates unpredictability
- Undecided Voters: Pre-election polls showed 34% undecided - where did they break?
- Moncada's Refusal: She announced she won't accept preliminary results - guaranteed conflict
Alternative Outcome: Nasralla could still win if:
- Remaining votes heavily urban (his strength)
- Anti-corruption message resonated with late deciders
- Preliminary count favored rural areas that broke for Asfura
Timeline:
- Electoral Council has 30 days to certify final results
- Inauguration scheduled: January 25, 2026
- Expect protests and legal challenges regardless of winner
Conclusion
The Honduras 2025 presidential election represents a critical inflection point for Central America's second-largest economy. Based on preliminary results (34% counted as of December 1, 2025), the race is effectively between two candidates:
Nasry Asfura (National Party) leads with 40.63%, while Salvador Nasralla (Liberal Party) holds 38.78%. The incumbent LIBRE party's candidate Rixi Moncada trails significantly at 19.59%, representing a dramatic reversal from LIBRE's 2021 landslide victory (53.61%).
Most Likely Outcome: Asfura Victory (55% confidence)
The confluence of Trump's endorsement, business community support, and the National Party's strong rural organization positions Asfura as the frontrunner. However, the narrow 1.85% margin (approximately 24,000 votes) and only 34% of ballots counted means this race remains highly competitive.
Critical Success Factors:
-
Vote Distribution: The remaining 66% of votes will determine the winner. If heavily urban, Nasralla could prevail; if rural, Asfura strengthens.
-
Undecided Voter Break: Pre-election polls showed 34% undecided. Their final choice is now embedded in the count.
-
Electoral Integrity: With all three candidates pre-emptively claiming fraud, the National Electoral Council's credibility is paramount.
-
International Pressure: OAS, EU, and US monitoring will influence acceptance of results.
Business Impact Matrix:
| Scenario | US Relations | Economic Policy | Investment Climate | Risk Level | |----------|--------------|-----------------|-------------------|------------| | Asfura Wins | Strengthened | Pro-market | Improved | Moderate | | Nasralla Wins | Maintained | Reform-focused | Stable | Low-Moderate | | Moncada Wins | Deteriorated | Interventionist | Uncertain | High | | Contested | Volatile | Paralyzed | Poor | Very High |
Strategic Recommendations for Business Leaders:
Immediate Actions (Next 30 Days):
- Activate Crisis Management Protocols: Prepare for potential civil unrest
- Diversify Currency Holdings: Hedge against lempira volatility
- Secure Supply Chains: Identify alternative routes if protests disrupt logistics
- Engage All Parties: Maintain relationships regardless of winner
Medium-Term Strategy (3-6 Months):
- Scenario-Based Planning: Develop contingencies for each outcome
- Regulatory Monitoring: Track policy changes under new administration
- Stakeholder Mapping: Identify key decision-makers in likely cabinet
- Risk Assessment: Evaluate operations in high-risk zones (Tegucigalpa, San Pedro Sula)
Long-Term Considerations (6-12 Months):
- Policy Alignment: Adapt to new foreign policy orientation (US/China/Taiwan)
- Investment Timing: Major commitments should await post-inauguration stability
- ESG Positioning: Environmental regulations may shift dramatically based on winner
- Labor Relations: Prepare for potential reforms under any administration
Key Uncertainties:
⚠ Post-Election Violence: 2017 precedent suggests risk of protests and crackdown
⚠ Trump Factor: Unprecedented direct intervention creates bilateral tension
⚠ Institutional Collapse: Electoral Council fragmentation threatens legitimacy
⚠ Regional Spillover: Venezuela, Nicaragua connections could escalate tensions
Timeline to Watch:
- December 1-15, 2025: Final vote counting and certification
- December 15-30, 2025: Legal challenges and potential recounts
- January 1-24, 2026: Transition period and cabinet formation
- January 25, 2026: Scheduled inauguration
- February-March 2026: Policy implementation begins
Final Word:
Honduras' election illustrates the complex interplay of domestic politics, US influence, and economic priorities in Central America. For businesses operating in or considering investment in Honduras, the next 60 days will be critical in shaping the country's trajectory for the next four years.
The safest approach: Prepare for volatility, but remain engaged. History shows that political transitions create both risks and opportunities—those who navigate them skillfully can emerge stronger.
Report compiled: December 1, 2025
Data sources: National Electoral Council of Honduras, Associated Press, BBC, Al Jazeera, AS/COA, WOLA, academic polling organizations
Next update: Upon final result certification (expected mid-December 2025)
